표 4 기간별 Granger 인과관계 검정 결과
구분 | 2008년∼2023년 |
Lag 1 | Lag 2 | Lag 3 | Lag 4 | Lag 5 | Lag 6 |
F-stat | F-stat | F-stat | F-stat | F-stat | F-stat |
Prob. | Prob. | Prob. | Prob. | Prob. | Prob. |
Unsold⇏CPI | 0.1220 | 2.0401 | 1.2975 | 1.4975 | 1.0168 | 0.9108 |
0.7273 | 0.1330 | 0.2768 | 0.2049 | 0.4093 | 0.4885 |
CPI⇏Unsold | 0.7757 | 0.1656 | 0.1245 | 0.2792 | 1.2090 | 1.0564 |
0.3796 | 0.8475 | 0.9455 | 0.8912 | 0.3068 | 0.3909 |
Unsold⇏ER | 0.0110 | 0.1955 | 0.5781 | 1.0300 | 0.7001 | 0.8443 |
0.9165 | 0.8226 | 0.6301 | 0.3932 | 0.6241 | 0.5374 |
ER⇏Unsold | 3.8255 | 0.8292 | 0.9952 | 1.5660 | 1.4711 | 1.1011 |
0.0520 | 0.4380 | 0.3964 | 0.1854 | 0.2016 | 0.3637 |
Unsold⇏Interest | 17.2205 | 1.5380 | 1.6774 | 1.2023 | 1.0832 | 0.9942 |
5.E-05 | 0.2176 | 0.1735 | 0.3115 | 0.3714 | 0.4309 |
Interest⇏Unsold | 19.249 | 5.6272 | 4.1767 | 3.5761 | 2.8070 | 2.5242 |
2.E-05 | 0.0042 | 0.0069 | 0.0199 | 0.0182 | 0.0229 |
Unsold⇏Jeonse | 172.0520 | 8.9565 | 7.6128 | 5.6342 | 5.5477 | 4.5850 |
3.E-28 | 0.0002 | 8.E-05 | 0.0003 | 9.E-05 | 0.0002 |
Jeonse⇏Unsole | 2.8266 | 2.0802 | 2.9361 | 2.1699 | 1.7692 | 1.1602 |
0.0944 | 0.1278 | 0.0347 | 0.0742 | 0.1215 | 0.3300 |
Unsold⇏LP | 5.3637 | 2.9120 | 3.0424 | 3.2233 | 3.0824 | 3.2088 |
0.0216 | 0.0569 | 0.0303 | 0.0139 | 0.0108 | 0.0052 |
LP⇏Unsold | 6.7253 | 1.3725 | 0.9789 | 0.5490 | 0.5007 | 0.4865 |
0.0103 | 0.2561 | 0.4039 | 0.7000 | 0.7754 | 0.8178 |
Unsold⇏M2 | 14.3499 | 4.3364 | 2.9745 | 2.5360 | 3.9455 | 3.7040 |
0.0002 | 0.0144 | 0.0330 | 0.0418 | 0.0020 | 0.0017 |
M2⇏Unsold | 0.6763 | 0.1985 | 0.1883 | 0.0768 | 0.4350 | 0.6720 |
0.4119 | 0.8201 | 0.9042 | 0.9893 | 0.8237 | 0.6724 |
Unsold⇏Sales | 162.7040 | 11.8820 | 8.9515 | 7.1158 | 6.3632 | 5.3923 |
3.E-27 | 1.E-05 | 1.E-05 | 2.E-05 | 2.E-05 | 4.E-05 |
Sales⇏Unsold | 7.9112 | 0.6651 | 3.3225 | 2.6632 | 2.3386 | 1.8682 |
0.0054 | 0.5155 | 0.0210 | 0.0341 | 0.0437 | 0.0889 |
CPI, consumer price index; ER, exchange rate; LP, license performance.